dimanche 15 novembre 2009

Oil falls on high inventories, weak demand

By Matthew Robinson

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Oil prices fell on Friday, briefly touching a one-month low as bulging fuel inventories in the United States stirred demand concerns.

U.S. crude futures settled down 59 cents at $76.35 a barrel, after earlier trading down to $75.57 a barrel, the lowest level since mid-October. In London, Brent crude futures fell 47 cents to settle at $75.55 a barrel.

Crude's losses extended a 3-percent drop on Thursday after the U.S. Energy Information Administration reported crude and product stocks in the world's largest energy consumer rose more than expected last week.

A rise of 1.8 million barrels in U.S. crude oil stocks and an increase of 2.5 million barrels in gasoline stocks came as data showed demand still trailing year-ago levels.

Fuel consumption in the United States and other large industrial countries was battered by the economic crisis, pushing crude prices off record highs near $150 a barrel in July 2008 to below $33 a barrel in December.

Prices have recovered since then as markets look toward an economic rebound that could boost oil demand.

"Crude futures are down, still hurt by Thursday's dismal inventory report showing petroleum inventories rose, with demand down, even though refinery rates were down a lot," said Gene McGillian, analyst for Tradition Energy.

"There's a battle in the oil markets between bearish fundamentals and expectations on when the economy turnaround will come."

Oil prices found some support in early afternoon trade from the weaker U.S. dollar following U.S. data that showed a big jump in the U.S. trade deficit.

A weaker dollar can boost demand for oil, which is priced in dollars, since it makes the commodity cheaper for holders of other currencies.

U.S. consumer sentiment fell in early November to the weakest level in three months amid grim expectations for job and income prospects, a survey showed on Friday.

Energy experts say current fundamentals may not support crude prices.

"Today the price of oil may be $70 or $80, tomorrow it may even be $90," Christophe de Margerie, chief executive of French oil major Total (TOTF.PA), said late Thursday. "If you look at supply and demand, the price should be lower.

Exxon Mobil Corp (XOM.N) CEO Rex Tillerson said winter heating demand alone was unlikely to significantly reduce the global fuel inventory glut.

The International Energy Agency, adviser to 28 industrial nations, said on Thursday the world would use more oil in the fourth quarter of this year than in 2008 due to a rebound in energy demand in Asia.

(Reporting by Joshua Schneyer, Matthew Robinson and Gene Ramos in New York; Additional reporting by David Sheppard in London and Felicia Loo in Singapore; Editing by Marguerita Choy)

China says Fed policy threatens global recovery

China says Fed policy threatens global recovery

By Geoff Dyer in Beijing and Kevin Brown in Singapore

Published: November 15 2009 16:02 | Last updated: November 15 2009 17:31

The US Federal Reserve is fuelling “speculative investments” and endangering global recovery through loose monetary policy, a senior Chinese official warned on Sunday just hours before President Barack Obama arrived in China for his first visit.

Liu Mingkang, China’s chief banking regulator, said that the combination of a weak dollar and low interest rates had encouraged a “huge carry trade” that was having a “massive impact on global asset prices”.


Mr Liu’s unusually blunt remarks underscore how China – the largest US creditor because of its massive holdings of Treasury bonds – has become a trenchant critic of monetary and fiscal policy in the US.The comments came as China and the US sparred at the Asia Pacific Economic Co-operation summit in Singapore over exchange rate policies amid rising international criticism that China’s currency is undervalued.

Since the start of the financial crisis, Chinese officials have issued a number of warnings that the US should not inflate away its mounting debt burden. Before these latest comments, however, Beijing had generally been most critical of US fiscal policy, urging Washington to spend less.

But speaking at a conference in Beijing, Mr Liu said the Fed’s policy of maintaining low interest rates together with the weak dollar posed a threat to the global economic recovery.

“[It] is boosting speculative investment in stock and property markets and will pose new, real and insurmountable risks to the global recovery and particularly to the recovery in emerging markets,” said Mr Liu, who is chairman of the China Banking Regulatory Commission.

“The situation has already encouraged a huge dollar carry trade and had a massive impact on global asset prices,” he added.

However, Mr Liu’s criticism of the Fed comes as China’s own monetary policy is attracting growing scrutiny at home. Critics say the massive expansion in bank loans this year could cause asset price bubbles and inflation.

Qin Xiao, chairman of China Merchants Bank, last month said China “urgently” needed to tighten monetary policy to avoid stock and property market bubbles.

At the Apec meeting in Singapore, the final communiqué from the 21 members was delayed as Hu Jintao, the Chinese president, called successfully for the removal of a reference to the desirability of “market oriented exchange rates that reflect underlying economic fundamentals”.

In a surprise move, the reference had been included in a statement by Apec finance ministers on Thursday, in spite of China’s unwillingness to discuss the issue. Mr Hu ignored the issue in both his speeches and earlier contributions to the Apec debates.

Officials confirmed that it had also been included in the final leaders’ statement, but was removed after a discussion between the US and Chinese leaders.

Lee Hsien Loong, the prime minister of Singapore and Apec summit chairman, did not confirm China’s role in changing the wording of the statement.

But he said some countries were concerned of the possibility of some currencies becoming unstable, and the problem that could arise if governments “had to intervene continually in order to manage their currencies”.

Obama goes to Beijing

By Jeremy Gaunt, European Investment Correspondent

LONDON (Reuters) - The dollar's long-term decline as the world's dominant currency will be on display next week when Barack Obama visits China, pledging to address what he sees as a "deeply imbalanced" economic and financial relationship.

Investors can probably sleep easy about any nightmare scenario unfolding -- China deciding suddenly to float its yuan currency, for example, or to sell its U.S. Treasuries and buy up a bunch of euros and other coinage with its huge current account surplus.

Such moves would be immense, sinking the already battered dollar, kicking U.S. borrowing costs skywards and driving up currencies in regions struggling to get out of recession.

But the various components of this will at least be aired.

The U.S. president has pledged to discuss the two countries' imbalances, which include a yawning trade gap and huge Chinese holdings of U.S. debt.

Much focus, accordingly, will be on China's managed exchange rate to the dollar, widely viewed in Washington as being significantly undervalued at around 6.83 yuan to the dollar.

Although China insists that it is constantly seeking to perfect its exchange rate, it has barely moved in the past year.

So the potential for a "gesture" to Obama on his visit could keep investors, and forex traders in particular, on their toes.

Then again -- as Thanos Papasavvas, head of currency management at Investec Asset Management, says -- it may be that the "gesture" has already been made.

The People's Bank of China said this week it would base FX changes on capital flows and fluctuations in the values of major currencies. But departing from past language, the central bank did not mention that it would keep the yuan basically stable.

"The fact that they have identified that something needs to be done is itself an action point," Papasavvas said. "We think they will continue their appreciation program next year. I don't thing it means anything dramatic."

DOLLAR DECLINE

Whatever the outcome of Obama's trip, it comes at a time when the dollar is struggling -- with all the implications that has for everything from more costly euro zone exports just as the bloc is exiting recession to potential currency losses for foreign investors in U.S. stocks and bonds.

The U.S. currency was trading around 15-month lows against a basket of major competitors this week. The euro was also driven up above $1.50 for a time.

The latest weekly data from fund trackers EPFR Global shows about $7 billion being poured into U.S. equity funds, although the firm said only about 7 percent of it came from non-U.S. domiciled funds.

There is also evidence that non-U.S. investors have been hedging heavily to protect themselves from dollar losses.

"Overseas investors in U.S. assets appear to be FX-hedged to a much larger degree than U.S. investors with foreign assets," Goldman Sachs wrote in a note.

"As a result, the global rally in risky assets increases the need for non-U.S. investors to hedge their growing asset portfolios, i.e., sell more dollars."

One impact of the weakening dollar that investors will be watching in the coming week is gold, which drives higher when the dollar falls because it becomes cheaper for non-U.S. investors and holds value for those with dollars.

Spot gold hit at all-time peak above $1,122 an ounce this week with little expectation of any major pullback.

Other dollar-denominated commodity prices also get a boost.

IT'S THE ECONOMY

Equity investors, in the meantime, have entered a kind of holding pattern, with the MSCI all-country world index sitting a few points below its cycle high but not breaking through.

This fits with what State Street is seeing in the flows from its institutional investor clients. They are tapering off but not turning risk averse.

"People are on the sidelines waiting for the next signal," said Andrew Capon, of the financial services company's research group.

Other than news from Beijing, any signals in the coming week are likely to come from consumer-related U.S. data. These include retail sales data on Monday and the National Association of Homebuilders report on housing on Tuesday.

Elsewhere, potential market movers include euro zone consumer prices on Monday and British inflation on Tuesday.

(Editing by Ruth Pitchford)

vendredi 26 juin 2009

La Fed ne perçoit pas encore de risque de reprise de l'inflation


Après deux jours de discussion, la Fed vient de décider qu'elle ne touchera pas à son taux directeur. Mais elle a surtout annoncé que l'inflation va rester encore contenue pendant "un certain temps".

FED -logo

La Banque centrale américaine vient de rendre son verdict après deux jours de discussions. Comme prévu, la Fed ne touche pas à son taux directeur. Elle a indiqué que ce dernier devrait rester "extrêmement bas", entre 0 et 0,25%, pendant une "longue période". C'est le niveau auquel il est fixé depuis décembre.

Selon elle, l'économie doit rester faible et l'inflation "contenue" encore un certain temps. "Le rythme de contraction de l'économie ralentit", mais l'activité économique devrait rester faible pendant un temps" encore, a écrit le Comité de politique monétaire (FOMC) de la banque centrale. "Bien que les prix de l'énergie et des autres matières premières aient augmenté récemment", la faiblesse de l'activité "devrait amortir les pressions sur les prix", écrit le Comité, prévoyant que "l'inflation restera contenue pendant un certain temps".

De plus, la Fed a annoncé qu'elle allait conserver en l'état sa politique anti-crise et n'évoque plus la déflation. En effet, la Banque centrale a constaté un ralentissement de la récession aux Etats-Unis et a laissé entendre que le risque de déflation avait diminué. Elle a également confirmé le calendrier et le montant de son programme de rachats d'emprunts sur les marchés financiers, une mesure non-conventionnelle destinée à favoriser le crédit. La Fed va donc continuer à agir sur les marchés comme elle le fait depuis plusieurs mois pour assurer le flux du crédit.

Pour Jim Awad, directeur exécutif chez Zephyr Management, "cela n'a aucun effet sur le marché, à la rigueur un effet légèrement défavorable parce que la Fed est un petit peu plus prudente que ne l'était le marché. Je m'attendais à ce qu'elle tienne un discours un peu plus positif sur l'économie. Le fait qu'elle souligne les faiblesses est un peu décevant pour moi, et pour le marché."

En revanche, selon Michael Woolfolk, stratege devises chez Bank of New York-Mellon "C'est exacterment ce que nous attendions. C'est certainement plus subtil que ce beaucoup de gens espéraient mais cela représente néanmoins un message clair sur le fait que l'inflation et l'économie vont rester faibles pendant un certain temps".

Marc Pado, stratege USA chez Cantor Fitzgerald & Co abonde dans le même sens : " Même si l'on assiste à un début de ventes sur la nouvelle dans l'immédiat, je pense que c'est exactement ce que le marché voulait entendre. La Fed va maintenir sa politique pour conserver des taux bas et elle attendra que la reprise soit réellement engagée avant de la modifier."

latribune.fr

Etats-Unis : récession moins forte mais hausse du chômage


Le PIB américain a reculé finalement au premier trimestre de 5,5% en rythme annuel contre 5,7% estimés précédemment et attendus par les analystes. Les inscriptions hebdomadaires au chômage ont augmenté de 15.000 à 627.000, nettement plus qu'attendu.

BAISSE DES DESTRUCTIONS D'EMPLOIS AUX ÉTATS-UNIS

La récession perd de sa méchante vigueur outre-Atlantique. Le département (ministère) américain du commerce a annoncé ce jeudi que le PIB (produit intérieur brut) a reculé finalement au premier trimestre de 5,5% en rythme annuel contre 5,7% estimés précédemment et attendus par les analystes.

Au dernier trimestre 2008, l'activité avait plongé de 6,3%. Elle avait déjà baissé au deuxième. Cela fait donc trois trimestres consécutifs de recul du PIB (deux suffisent pour qualifier techniquement une récession). Le trimestre qui s'achève ne devrait pas marquer de rebond.

Les plus optimistes espèrent un retour à la croissance ou au moins à la stabilité au troisième trimestre de cette année. D'autant que le phénomène de déstockage qui a amplifié la récession (et l'a même causé, selon les plus extrêmes) tend à se réduire.

Pour cela, il faudra que la consommation résiste malgré la hausse du chômage et surtout que l'investissement reparte après une chute de 48,9% en rythme annuel au premier trilmestre, du jamais vu depuis 1975, ce qui a fait perdre 8,20 points de croissance aux Etats-Unis. Ce sont surtout les entreprises qui ont stoppé leurs investissements (-37,6%).

Il faudra aussi pour cela que la situation de l'emploi aux Etats-Unis s'améliore. Or, les inscriptions hebdomadaires au chômage y ont augmenté de 15.000 à 627.000 lors de la semaine au 20 juin, contre 612.000 (révisé de 608.000) la semaine précédente, selon le département du Travail, et 600.000 attendus par les économistes.

La moyenne mobile sur quatre semaines s'établit à 617.250 contre 616.750 (révisé de 615.750) la semaine précédente. Le nombre de personnes percevant régulièrement des indemnités s'est élevé à 6,738 millions lors de la semaine au 13 juin contre 6,709 millions la semaine précédente.

latribune.fr

France : récession confirmée en début d'année, le moral des consommateurs s'améliore en juin


Le produit intérieur brut (PIB) de la France s'est contracté de 1,2% au premier trimestre 2009 par rapport aux trois mois précédents, a confirmé ce vendredi l'Insee. En revanche, le moral des consommateurs s'est nettement amélioré en juin pour revenir à son meilleur niveau depuis mars 2008, tout en restant en territoire négatif.

drapeau français

Le PIB français a bien baissé de 1,2% au premier trimestre, confirme ce vendredi l'Insee. Le chiffre du quatrième trimestre a été révisé en recul de 1,4% au lieu d'une baisse de 1,5% initialement annoncée.

Ces chiffres confirment que la France traverse la plus grave récession de son histoire, tout en résistant mieux que ses voisins, mais les indicateurs déjà disponibles pour le deuxième trimestre laissent prévoir une atténuation de la contraction du PIB qui selon l'Insee devrait être de l'ordre de 0,6% en avril-juin.

Au premier trimestre, les dépenses de consommation des ménages ont légèrement progressé selon les chiffres détaillés de l'Insee (de 0,2% après 0,1% au trimestre précédent). La formation brute de capital fixe (FBCF) totale connaît un nouveau recul (-2,4% après -2,5%), à l'image de la FBCF des entreprises non financières (ENF) (-3,4% après -2,8%) et de la FBCF des ménages (-1,6% après -2,6%).

Les exportations ont chuté de 6,4% après un recul de 4,7% au quatrième trimestre, et les importations de 5,3% après une baisse de 3,2%. Au total, le solde extérieur contribue pour -0,1 point à l'évolution du PIB ce trimestre (après une contribution de -0,3 point au trimestre précédent).

Enfin, les variations de stocks ont contribué pour -0,7 point à la croissance du PIB, comme au quatrième trimestre 2008. L'Insee signale encore que le taux de marge des entreprises non financières a augmenté de 0,4 point à 37,5% au premier trimestre et que la hausse du pouvoir d'achat du revenu disponible brut des ménages a ralenti à 0,4% (après 1% au quatrième trimestre 2008).

Par ailleurs, le moral des consommateurs s'est nettement amélioré en juin en France pour revenir à son meilleur niveau depuis mars 2008, tout en restant en territoire négatif, selon l'enquête mensuelle de conjoncture auprès des ménages publiée vendredi aussi par l'Insee. L'indicateur résumé de l'opinion des ménages en données corrigées (CVS) ressort à -37 après -40 en mai.

L'indice retrouve ainsi son niveau d'il y a quinze mois et se situe à 11 points au-dessus de son plus bas record de -48 touché en juillet 2008. L'enquête, publiée au lendemain de l'annonce de 36.400 demandeurs d'emplois supplémentaires en mai, montre que l'opinion concernant le chômage s'est de nouveau détériorée.

latribune.fr

jeudi 25 juin 2009

Exclusive: The return of blood diamonds

The Independent

Six years ago, the world came together to stop a trade in gems that was fuelling civil war in Africa. Now the architect of the deal has quit, warning that jewels 'have blood all over them' again

By Daniel Howden, Africa Correspondent

Thursday, 25 June 2009






The leading architect of the international system to stop the trade in blood diamonds has warned that the safety net is close to collapse with governments and the industry failing to act against gross violations.

Ian Smillie, the "grandfather" of the landmark Kimberley Process, that was agreed in response to appalling civil wars in Africa fuelled by illegal gems, said he had "stomped out" on his scheme as it was no longer working.

"It isn't regulating the rough diamond trade," the Canadian expert said yesterday. "It is in danger of becoming irrelevant and it's letting all manner of crooks off the hook."

The Kimberley safeguards came into effect in 2003 and helped restore consumer confidence in precious stones. Today they regulate 99.98 per cent of the rough diamond trade, but if the process loses credibility, experts say criminals will re-enter the trade with conflict diamonds quickly reappearing in shops in London, Paris and New York.

Mr Smillie was one of the authors of the Kimberley Process Certification Scheme (KPCS), the UN-backed agreement credited with breaking the link between the diamond trade and vicious conflicts, mainly in southern and western Africa. His comments came as the 49 members of the Kimberley Process – made up of governments, industry and civil society – met in Namibia with a growing list of concerns.

Top of those is Zimbabwe, where hundreds of diamond miners were massacred by the army as the government effectively militarised a key mining area late last year. Some in the industry have questioned whether Zimbabwe's gems match the definition of conflict diamonds as they are helping to fund a government, not a rebel army, but Mr Smillie rejected this: "They are blood diamonds, they have blood all over them."

Zimbabwe is not alone and a host of other cracks have emerged in the system of safeguards meant to "ensure that diamond purchases were not funding violence". Monitors have pointed to the illegal trade flourishing in Ivory Coast, Guinea, Venezuela and Lebanon.

One-hundred percent of Venezuela's diamonds are being smuggled, according to the UK-based Global Witness; Guinea has reported an unfeasible 500 per cent increase in diamond production year on year; and Lebanon is exporting more rough diamonds than it imports despite having no local deposits. None of those countries have been suspended from the process and while inspection teams have been dispatched and reports commissioned, no action has been taken.

"The Kimberley Process is always the last to wake up and smell the coffee," Mr Smillie complained. It was claimed that he had "retired" from his role as one of the group's chief monitors earlier this year but the Canadian dismissed this report, saying he had "stomped out". "If it was working I would be there in Windhoek arguing with them or celebrating with them... but governments want to pretend that it is working." He said the mantra of KPCS has become "let's not do anything now" and accused them of "fiddling while Rome burns".

The KPCS is under strong pressure to act against Zimbabwe. "Hundreds of miners have been killed by their own government," said Annie Dunnebacke, lead campaigner from Global Witness. "How can that country still be part of the Kimberley Process? What's the point of having a stick if the stick is never used? Zimbabwe should be suspended."

The Namibia meeting which ends today has agreed to send an inspection team to the troubled southern African nation next week but it's unlikely they will be given serious access to the Marange area where the killings occurred. Inspectors have privately admitted that people they want to interview have been arrested or intimidated already.

Global Witness and Mr Smillie's Partnership Canada-Africa NGO were among the pressure groups who put blood diamonds on the agenda of the UN Security Council in 2000. At that stage rough gems were helping to pay for vicious civil wars in Sierra Leone, Liberia and Angola that cost hundreds of thousands of lives.

A UN resolution in December 2000 launched the Kimberley Process, and it was signed three years later. On its own website the organisation trumpets its success: "Diamond experts estimate that conflict diamonds now represent a fraction of one per cent of the international trade in diamonds, compared to estimates of up to 15 per cent in the 1990s. That has been the Kimberley Process's most remarkable contribution to a peaceful world."

The key to that success was ensuring that it reached all countries involved in the trade. Its future depends on ensuring there are no grey areas for blood diamonds to exploit. "Diamonds travel quickly," explained Mr Smillie.

The consequences of a collapse of the Kimberley Process would be twofold, he warned. "The diamond trade would go back to its criminal past and rebel armies would have no problem finding buyers for their blood diamonds. The potential for diamonds fuelling conflict would be back," he said.

The Ministry of Love-Hate

Newsweek

A new form of totalitarianism is being born in Iran. Why—and what—Big Brother is watching.

Christopher Dickey in London
Newsweek Web Exclusive
Jun 24, 2009 | Updated: 5:51 p.m. ET Jun 24, 2009

Dictators all over the world have been watching Iran for lessons learned. Will the crackdown crush the opposition? Will the streets win out? Is there, perhaps, a Green or Orange or Velvet Revolution of some sort waiting to challenge them, too? They know that somewhere buried in their young and restive populations are the seeds of such a thing. And they also know just how tenuous their power will become if they have to face massive, measured, relentless demonstrations of the kind that changed the face of Iran last week.

The Arab regimes in the neighborhood, which are almost all presidential dynasties or monarchies, appear especially confused by the spectacle of vast passive resistance. It's the one kind of challenge they've never had to face. There's no history of, nor particular respect for the ways of Mahatma Gandhi and Martin Luther King in a culture where honor is vital and violence is considered the best way to uphold it. The new Iranian revolution, if by some chance it wins out, could change all that.

"I hate to say it," says a political activist in Jordan who asked not to be named specifically saying this, "but the Persians are always out in front of the Arabs, whether they are making Islamic revolution or this passive resistance." Egypt, Syria, Morocco, Bahrain, and even the Palestinian struggle with Israel could be transformed by what U.S. President Barack Obama called "a peaceful and determined insistence" on civil and human rights.

But a defeat of the street in Iran will shoot down such hopes. So the mass-market media in most of the Arab world have carried relatively limited coverage of the demonstrations against the allegedly rigged Iranian elections. Most leaders have even congratulated Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, the Iranian president that they love to hate in private, on his reelection victory.
The most telling reactions, however, come from those governments that are, or used to be (and perhaps still wish they were) totalitarian. Cuban television broadcast extensive reports on Ahmadinejad's victory, nothing on the protests. And Moscow? Julia Ioffe noted on The New Republic's Web site, "This just doesn't look like a rigged election to Russians, because Russians don't rig their elections; they engineer them."

And then there are the Chinese. The specter of Tiananmen still haunts the Beijing leadership after 20 years, and the idea of a replay fueled this time by the Internet and cell phones clearly horrifies the old guard. So last week, with littler fanfare but a pervasive impact, propaganda authorities issued an emergency notice telling Chinese newspapers and Web sites to cut back their coverage of events in Iran. According to the South China Morning Post, based in Hong Kong, major portals like Sina.com dropped the news agencies' video and deleted comments, replacing them with material from the official People's Daily and Xinhua news service. Beijing must have been nervous.

Yet, for the moment at least, it would seem the totalitarians past and present are winning. Passive resistance is being smashed in Iran, and that may signal the success, once again, of something much more insidious and repressive than mere dictatorship.

"Totalitarian" is, in fact, one of those words that's been applied so often to so many governments that it doesn't seem to mean much any more. But back in the middle of the 20th century, when George Orwell wrote the bleak, iconic novel 1984, he had a profound sense of the evil that men did when they sought to control every aspect of a nation's and a people's life. For those who have the chance to see it, there is a dramatization called George Orwell—A Celebration playing in London just now. And parts of it, especially the interrogation-indoctrination scene from the closing pages of the novel, bring home this point like nothing else I've seen recently—except the videos out of Iran. Day by day, even as less and less news leaks past the human censors and inhuman digital filters, we can see still make out the shadowy outlines of a new totalitarian state aborning. And this is something new.

Perhaps you thought this was always true in Iran, but it wasn't, quite. The reign of terror that followed the revolution 30 years ago had come to seem a fading nightmare. The regime, even under President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, had become one that could accommodate many views. It was restrictive and sometimes capricious, but it allowed most people to breathe and get on with their lives. When right-wing American pundits anxious to discredit Muslims everywhere talked about "Islamofascism," the Iranian reality tended to give the lie to their arguments, not confirm them. Now, sadly, all that is changing.

"In our world there will be no emotions except fear, rage, triumph and self-abasement," says the state interrogator in the 1984 Ministry of Love, which is the ministry of hate. The message is beaten into the society until all resistance, even mental resistance, is broken. As the protagonist of Orwell's novel finally surrenders, he lets himself believe that "Freedom is slavery," that "two and two make five," if the state tells him so, and that "God is Power." He learns to love Big Brother.

That was the kind of love, based on lies and fear, that the old totalitarian governments learned to expect from their populations. That is the kind of love the leaders of Iran's government seem to want from their people today. No wonder the Russians, the Chinese and the Cubans are cheering them on.

URL: http://www.newsweek.com/id/203566

mercredi 24 juin 2009

Ahmadinejad won. Get over it





– Flynt Leverett directs The New America Foundation’s Iran Project and teaches international affairs at Pennsylvania State university. Hillary Mann Leverett is CEO of STRATEGA, a political risk consultancy. Both worked for many years on Middle East issues for the U.S. government, including as members of the National Security Council staff. The views expressed are their own. —

This article originally appeared on Politico.com.

Without any evidence, many U.S. politicians and “Iran experts” have dismissed Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s reelection Friday, with 62.6 percent of the vote, as fraud.

They ignore the fact that Ahmadinejad’s 62.6 percent of the vote in this year’s election is essentially the same as the 61.69 percent he received in the final count of the 2005 presidential election, when he trounced former President Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani. The shock of the “Iran experts” over Friday’s results is entirely self-generated, based on their preferred assumptions and wishful thinking.

Although Iran’s elections are not free by Western standards, the Islamic Republic has a 30-year history of highly contested and competitive elections at the presidential, parliamentary and local levels. Manipulation has always been there, as it is in many other countries.
But upsets occur — as, most notably, with Mohammed Khatami’s surprise victory in the 1997 presidential election. Moreover, “blowouts” also occur — as in Khatami’s reelection in 2001,
Ahmadinejad’s first victory in 2005 and, we would argue, this year.

Like much of the Western media, most American “Iran experts” overstated Mirhossein Mousavi’s “surge” over the campaign’s final weeks. More important, they were oblivious — as in 2005 — to Ahmadinejad’s effectiveness as a populist politician and campaigner. American “Iran experts” missed how Ahmadinejad was perceived by most Iranians as having won the nationally televised debates with his three opponents — especially his debate with Mousavi.

Before the debates, both Mousavi and Ahmadinejad campaign aides indicated privately that they perceived a surge of support for Mousavi; after the debates, the same aides concluded that Ahmadinejad’s provocatively impressive performance and Mousavi’s desultory one had boosted the incumbent’s standing. Ahmadinejad’s charge that Mousavi was supported by Rafsanjani’s sons — widely perceived in Iranian society as corrupt figures — seemed to play well with voters.

Similarly, Ahmadinejad’s criticism that Mousavi’s reformist supporters, including Khatami, had been willing to suspend Iran’s uranium enrichment program and had won nothing from the West for doing so tapped into popular support for the program — and had the added advantage of being true.

More fundamentally, American “Iran experts” consistently underestimated Ahmadinejad’s base of support. Polling in Iran is notoriously difficult; most polls there are less than fully professional and, hence, produce results of questionable validity. But the one poll conducted before Friday’s election by a Western organization that was transparent about its methodology — a telephone poll carried out by the Washington-based Terror-Free Tomorrow from May 11 to 20 — found Ahmadinejad running 20 points ahead of Mousavi. This poll was conducted before the televised debates in which, as noted above, Ahmadinejad was perceived to have done well while Mousavi did poorly.

American “Iran experts” assumed that “disastrous” economic conditions in Iran would undermine Ahmadinejad’s reelection prospects. But the International Monetary Fund projects that Iran’s economy will actually grow modestly this year (when the economies of most Gulf Arab states are in recession).

A significant number of Iranians — including the religiously pious, lower-income groups, civil servants and pensioners — appear to believe that Ahmadinejad’s policies have benefited them.

And, while many Iranians complain about inflation, the TFT poll found that most Iranian voters do not hold Ahmadinejad responsible. The “Iran experts” further argue that the high turnout on June 12 — 82 percent of the electorate — had to favor Mousavi. But this line of analysis reflects nothing more than assumptions.

Some “Iran experts” argue that Mousavi’s Azeri background and “Azeri accent” mean that he was guaranteed to win Iran’s Azeri-majority provinces; since Ahmadinejad did better than Mousavi in these areas, fraud is the only possible explanation.

But Ahmadinejad himself speaks Azeri quite fluently as a consequence of his eight years serving as a popular and successful official in two Azeri-majority provinces; during the campaign, he artfully quoted Azeri and Turkish poetry — in the original — in messages designed to appeal to Iran’s Azeri community. (And we should not forget that the supreme leader is Azeri.) The notion that Mousavi was somehow assured of victory in Azeri-majority provinces is simply not grounded in reality.

With regard to electoral irregularities, the specific criticisms made by Mousavi — such as running out of ballot paper in some precincts and not keeping polls open long enough (even though polls stayed open for at least three hours after the announced closing time) — could not, in themselves, have tipped the outcome so clearly in Ahmadinejad’s favor.

Moreover, these irregularities do not, in themselves, amount to electoral fraud even by American legal standards. And, compared with the U.S. presidential election in Florida in 2000, the flaws in Iran’s electoral process seem less significant.

In the wake of Friday’s election, some “Iran experts” — perhaps feeling burned by their misreading of contemporary political dynamics in the Islamic Republic — argue that we are witnessing a “conservative coup d’état,” aimed at a complete takeover of the Iranian state.

But one could more plausibly suggest that if a “coup” is being attempted, it has been mounted by the losers in Friday’s election. It was Mousavi, after all, who declared victory on Friday even before Iran’s polls closed. And three days before the election, Mousavi supporter Rafsanjani published a letter criticizing the leader’s failure to rein in Ahmadinejad’s resort to “such ugly and sin-infected phenomena as insults, lies and false allegations.” Many Iranians took this letter as an indication that the Mousavi camp was concerned their candidate had fallen behind in the campaign’s closing days.

In light of these developments, many politicians and “Iran experts” argue that the Obama administration cannot now engage the “illegitimate” Ahmadinejad regime. Certainly, the administration should not appear to be trying to “play” in the current controversy in Iran about the election. In this regard, President Barack Obama’s comments on Friday, a few hours before the polls closed in Iran, that “just as has been true in Lebanon, what can be true in Iran as well is that you’re seeing people looking at new possibilities” was extremely maladroit.

From Tehran’s perspective, this observation undercut the credibility of Obama’s acknowledgment, in his Cairo speech earlier this month, of U.S. complicity in overthrowing a democratically elected Iranian government and restoring the shah in 1953.

The Obama administration should vigorously rebut any argument against engaging Tehran following Friday’s vote. More broadly, Ahmadinejad’s victory may force Obama and his senior advisers to come to terms with the deficiencies and internal contradictions in their approach to Iran. Before the Iranian election, the Obama administration had fallen for the same illusion as many of its predecessors — the illusion that Iranian politics is primarily about personalities and finding the right personality to deal with. That is not how Iranian politics works.

The Islamic Republic is a system with multiple power centers; within that system, there is a strong and enduring consensus about core issues of national security and foreign policy, including Iran’s nuclear program and relations with the United States. Any of the four candidates in Friday’s election would have continued the nuclear program as Iran’s president; none would agree to its suspension.

Any of the four candidates would be interested in a diplomatic opening with the United States, but that opening would need to be comprehensive, respectful of Iran’s legitimate national security interests and regional importance, accepting of Iran’s right to develop and benefit from the full range of civil nuclear technology — including pursuit of the nuclear fuel cycle — and aimed at genuine rapprochement.

Such an approach would also, in our judgment, be manifestly in the interests of the United States and its allies throughout the Middle East. It is time for the Obama administration to get serious about pursuing this approach — with an Iranian administration headed by the reelected President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

© 2009 Capitol News Company LLC

Picture top right: A supporter of defeated presidential candidate Mirhossein Mousavi holds up a photograph of him while attending a rally in Tehran June 15, 2009. REUTERS/Morteza Nikoubazl

Picture top left: Iran’s President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad looks on during his first news conference after the presidential elections in Tehran June 14, 2009. REUTERS/Damir Sagolj

jeudi 18 juin 2009

Core Reforms Held Firm As Much Else Fell Away


In Triage Mode, Economic Team's Goal To Expand Fed's Power Trumped Others

By David Cho and Zachary A. Goldfarb
Washington Post Staff Writers
Thursday, June 18, 2009

The plan President Obama unveiled yesterday to overhaul the government's oversight of the financial system was not the wholesale remaking of Washington that the administration had initially envisioned.

As the proposal came under intense pressure this spring, its chief architects held firm to a few reforms they deemed the most fundamental to averting another financial crisis while giving ground on nearly everything else.

Time and again, lawmakers, regulators and industry lobbyists pressed their concerns behind closed doors at the White House and the Treasury Department, according to participants.

Turf-conscious regulators opposed the idea to consolidate banking oversight agencies and took their appeal over the Treasury directly to the White House. Ultimately the administration spared all but one agency.

A few key lawmakers argued against merging the two federal agencies that oversee the stock and commodity markets. That did not happen.

Insurance companies fought over whether a national regulator should oversee them. The White House dropped the proposal.

But on those elements that mattered most to the administration, particularly expanding the powers of the Federal Reserve, Obama's senior advisers were unyielding.

On May 8, lobbyists representing many of the nation's banks and hedge funds huddled with senior White House advisers in the Roosevelt Room, seeking to snuff out an administration plan to increase the Fed's authority to regulate them, when Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner stuck his head in the door.

Fresh from meeting with Obama, Geithner asked the lobbyists what they were up to. When they explained they preferred that a council of regulators, rather than the central bank, safeguard the financial markets, Geithner silenced the discussion with a string of obscenities, according to people who were present.

"I don't believe in rule by committee," he said.

Now as the plan moves to Capitol Hill, skeptics say it gives the Fed too much power. Others say it did not go far enough to eliminate overlapping agencies. Some big financial firms complain that they were cut out of the process.

Geithner and National Economic Council director Lawrence H. Summers, who forged the plan, did not seek a consensus among all of these interest groups. Instead, Summers said, they focused on how to fix the regulatory system's root problems. Whether the solution called for the merger or elimination of agencies was a secondary concern.

"We made a decision to focus on doing what is necessary to prevent future crises," Summers said in an interview. "The test of whether this is going to be bold and far-reaching is going to be what happens in practice in the financial industry not what happens to organizational charts in Washington."

Meetings on regulatory reform began a few weeks after the November election. At first, Summers and Geithner insisted that their team fully understand what factors had provoked the crisis rather than address practical matters, such as which agencies would be eliminated and which would gain power, according to participants in the sessions.

But it was clear to several of them that Geithner and Summers had long ago concluded the Fed should take on a new, more powerful role that would allow it to probe any firm or market that could threaten the financial system.

The group examined other possibilities, including creating a new agency to exercise the power, giving it to an existing regulator or assigning the task to a council of regulators. But every idea, upon scrutiny, was judged to have major flaws.

The separate issue of protecting consumers of mortgages and other financial products emerged as a second priority at a meeting with Obama shortly after his inauguration. Treasury officials gave a presentation about the growing complexity of the lending business. Obama referred to his own personal experience of trying to understand the rules governing credit cards. He urged the group to take strong action on consumer regulation, sources said.

As the weeks progressed, the group convened nearly every day, often meeting in Summers's office on the second floor of the White House, where they raided his personal stash of Diet Cokes, or in the Roosevelt Room.

By the end of February, a first draft of the plan emerged. It included several radical proposals. The oversight authority of the nation's four federal banking regulators would be merged into one agency. The Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission would be combined.

Neither proposal would survive.

The proposal to create a unified banking regulator faced resistance from big and small banks, which are overseen by a patchwork of federal and state agencies. Banks have been able to choose their own regulator, often allowing them to seek the friendliest oversight. Establishing a single regulator would threaten this arrangement.

In February, Camden R. Fine, chief executive of Independent Community Bankers of America, sat down in Geithner's office days after he was sworn in, according to a person familiar with the meeting. Fine warned Geithner against the idea of a single regulator, telling him that such a proposal would anger the 8,000 community banks ICBA represents. Fine cautioned him that "we would be totally opposed to that," the source recalled.

Geithner didn't respond. He listened and took notes.

Such meetings with industry representatives were common, but senior administration officials said they did not allow themselves to be unduly swayed by such concerns.

More influential were the voices of banking regulators, as well as the heads of financial committees in Congress, some administration officials said.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. Chairman Sheila C. Bair said she spoke to the Treasury and then to the White House about preserving her agency's role as a regulator of state-chartered banks, arguing that the existing system of state charters was important for supporting community banks and that it had not contributed to the financial crisis.

Obama's advisers said they chose to pick their spots and put their political weight behind only those issues considered vital to the plan. These officials, for instance, said they were willing to scrap the idea of a single banking regulator as long as they could achieve the same objective by crafting rules to impose uniform oversight over all banks.

"We were leaning to the merger. Then we think: What kind of reaction are you going to get on the Hill? What's the political blowback? And given the political blowback, is it essential to do it?" an administration official said. "The substance underneath matters a heck of a lot more."

Problems in the insurance industry were deemed by officials to be peripheral to the financial crisis. So while a federal regulator for insurance companies was suggested in the administration's first weeks, this proposal was shelved after it confronted opposition from state governments, which now regulate the industry, and widely diverging views from insurers.

At a June 4 meeting with insurance company representatives, White House and Treasury officials opened by asking what kind of regulator they wanted, according to people present. The American Council of Life Insurance said it wanted a federal regulator. The chief executive of the National Association of Insurance Commissioners jumped in to say state regulators work best. Lobbyists for property and casualty insurance companies argued against federal regulation.

The arguments went round and round, with different people shouting one another down. Finally, an administration official ended the gathering, telling participants: "Now you'll understand why we can't make everyone happy."

Staff writers Binyamin Appelbaum and Brady Dennis contributed to this report.

Is Obama's Financial-Reform Plan Bold Enough?

Thursday, Jun. 18, 2009


Almost every reference to the financial regulatory plan that was unveiled today by President Obama is prefaced with something along the lines of "the most sweeping overhaul of financial regulation since the 1930s." Obama himself used such language in his speech this afternoon.

The description isn't wrong. The Obama plans would, if enacted, amount to the biggest changes in financial regulation since the 1930s. But don't let this make you think the Obama reforms even approach in significance and forcefulness the changes made back then. In the early days of the Roosevelt Administration, Congress set up the Securities and Exchange Commission and charged it with strictly regulating markets, split banks from investment banks with the Glass-Steagall Act, created the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., and enacted all manner of other game-changing financial reforms. It's not just that the Obama reforms are less ambitious than those of the Great Depression. They're also inspired by a very different interpretation of what went wrong. In the 1930s the overarching idea was that Wall Street had been very naughty and needed to be put in the penalty box — for good. This time the animating spirit behind the changes seems to be that regulators let a lot of things slip through the cracks, so there's a need both to give them some new tools and exhort them to do better. (See award-winning pictures of the fallout from the financial meltdown.)

There are some perfectly good reasons for this difference in approach: In the early 1930s, Congress was confronting a failed and mostly unregulated financial system. What we have now is a financial system that has been prevented from failing by government actions, and already has regulators swarming over many, but not all, of its parts.

The result is a reform plan that's clearly had a lot of thought put into it, and responds to many of the most obvious failings of our financial regulatory setup, but doesn't really change the way the financial game is played. The Federal Reserve would have more power to snoop around financial institutions that it thinks pose a systemic risk, the FDIC would get the power to take over and wind down non-banks, most over-the-counter derivatives would be forced onto exchanges, and capital requirements would be ratcheted up across the financial system. But the current alphabet soup of regulatory agencies would remain mostly in place, and there will apparently be no effort to break up too-big-to-fail financial institutions or cordon off risky financial activities from essential ones (as the Glass-Steagall Act attempted to do).

The one really big, bold change envisioned in the Obama plan is the creation of a Consumer Financial Protection Agency that would take over the drafting and enforcement of consumer financial rules from the banking regulators. This is a move proposed two years ago by Harvard Law School professor Elizabeth Warren, who is now chairman of the panel overseeing the Treasury Department's bank bailout. "It is impossible to buy a toaster that has a one-in-five chance of bursting into flames and burning down your house," Warren wrote in the journal Democracy in 2007. "But it is possible to refinance an existing home with a mortgage that has the same one-in-five chance of putting the family out on the street."

Bank regulators were willing to countenance those kinds of risks because their main charge was keeping banks healthy and profitable. A separate consumer agency would presumably be much tougher. It would also probably curtail financial innovation and keep some Americans from getting loans — as banking groups, who like the consumer agency idea least of all the Obama proposals, are already arguing. But that's not necessarily a bad thing. It's hard to imagine the financial crisis of the past two years being anywhere near as damaging if lenders had simply been banned from extending home loans to people who couldn't afford to repay without either selling their houses or rolling over into new loans. So maybe this one bold change will be enough.

Librarians Fighting Google's Book Deal

Wednesday, Jun. 17, 2009


Critics of Google's book-searching agreement with publishers and authors were cheered last week when antitrust regulators in the Justice Department set their sights on the search giant's publishing deal, demanding more information.

"This is a monumental settlement that's at stake, and for the government to show this kind of attention is heartening," says Lee Van Orsdel, dean of university libraries at Grand Valley State University. "The increased scrutiny on the part of the DOJ tells us that our concerns are resonating far beyond the library community," concurs Corey Williams, associate director in the office of government relations at the American Library Association. (See pictures of work and life at Google.)

Goliath Google facing off against a legion of librarians and, possibly, the U.S. Justice Department — now there's a fight.

Indeed, a deal that once appeared a sure bet for rubber-stamp approval is now the target of angry opposition and intense regulatory interest, which throw its future into question.

At issue is a $125 million settlement agreement reached last October that gives Google the right to make millions of books available for reading — and purchase — on the Internet. Under the pact, a Book Rights Registry will be set up that will allow publishers and authors to register their work and get paid for their titles through institutional subscriptions, ad fees and book sales. Google will retain 37% of the revenue, with the remainder going to the registry to be distributed to authors and publishers. The deal effectively gives authors and publishers control over their work in the digital world and pays them for it. For the public, it means easy click-of-the-mouse access to millions of books that sit on dusty shelves in university libraries across the country. (See the 100 best novels of all time.)

The agreement, which must still get federal court approval, was aimed at ending two lawsuits filed in 2005 against Google by the Authors Guild and the Association of American Publishers. Basically, authors and publishers had complained that the Web-searching king had broken copyright laws when it scanned millions of books from university and research libraries and made snippets of their content available online.

In a complex settlement agreement, which took three years to hammer out and spans 135 pages excluding attachments, Google will be allowed to show up to 20% of the books' text online at no charge to Web surfers. But the part of the settlement that deals with so-called orphan books — which refers to out-of-print books whose authors and publishers are unknown — is what's ruffling the most feathers in the literary henhouse. The deal gives Google an exclusive license to publish and profit from these orphans, which means it won't face legal action if an author or owner comes forward later. This, critics contend, gives it a competitive edge over any rival that wants to set up a competing digital library. And without competition, opponents fear Google will start charging exorbitant fees to academic libraries and others who want full access to its digital library.

"It will make Google virtually invulnerable to competition," says Robert Darnton, head of the Harvard University library system.

Although competitors could scan orphans, they would not be protected from copyright suits as Google is under the agreement. "They'd face lawsuits all over the place," making the risk too big, said Darnton.

Without competition, pricing could go wild, critics claim. The registry, which oversees pricing, is comprised of authors and publishers who stand to benefit from high subscription fees. "There will be no incentive to keep prices moderate," Darnton says.

The library community recalls with horror the pricing fiasco that occurred when industry consolidation left academic journals in the hands of five publishing companies. The firms hiked subscription prices 227% over a 14-year period, between 1986 and 2002, forcing cash-strapped libraries to drop many subscriptions, according to Van Orsdel. "The chance of the price being driven up in a similar way (in the Google deal) is really very real," he says.

See 10 ways your job will change.

See 10 things to buy during the recession.

In a sign that Google has been listening to critics' complaints, it recently signed an amended individual agreement with the University of Michigan, adding a mechanism that would give the university the right to dispute a price increase through arbitration. Any price discrepancy in the arbitrated settlement would come from Google's 37% revenue stake, not from the authors' and publishers' share. "That's a step in the right direction, but it only benefits the University of Michigan at this point," says Williams.

Then there's the privacy issue. Google has the technology to track every page and book a person reads, how long they spend on a given page and what books they purchase. Yet the agreement makes no mention of how much of this information will be collected or how it will be used. "That really flies in the face of core principal library values of protecting patron privacy," says Williams. "This agreement is completely silent on the issue of privacy." (Read "Why Google Wants You to Google Yourself.")

Opposition to the deal has been escalating, with librarians, academics, consumer advocates and even a few authors urging the federal court to either scuttle the deal or at least amend it. The son and daughter-in-law of author John Steinbeck as well as musician Arlo Guthrie are among the high-profile critics. In May, the federal judge overseeing the matter extended the deadline to Sept. 4 for people to offer comments and for publishers to opt out of the deal.

In April, the Department of Justice launched its own investigation to see if the deal broke antitrust laws. And this week, opponents were elated when the DOJ appeared to step up its scrutiny by issuing civil investigative demands, or CIDs, demanding additional information from Google and other parties.

But Google has its supporters. "I think a lot of [the criticism] has been unfair and really ignores the benefits this provides," says Paul Aiken, executive director of the Authors Guild. "We're talking about bringing books to people on the Internet — making sure that books stay relevant in the online age and that people have sources for facts that go beyond what's available on Wikipedia."

Dan Clancy, engineering director at Google, dismisses suggestions the deal will give Google a monopoly. He says orphans represent only a small percentage of the overall books Google is dealing with, although he was unable to say what percentage of the 10 million books Google has scanned thus far fall into this category.

Clancy contends that the orphan-licensing agreement wasn't extended beyond Google because it was part of a class action settlement pact, and other companies weren't part of the suit. He supports efforts by Congress to pass an orphan-works bill that would give everyone similar legal protection. (See the top 10 fiction books of 2008.)

On the matter of privacy, Clancy says Google will issue guidelines before the program is rolled out.

Advocates remain upbeat that the deal will get a green light. "We believe that we're on very solid legal ground to get this settlement approved," says Michael Boni, a partner at Boni & Zack LLC, which represents the Authors Guild. "So we're really not considering any doomsday scenarios at this point."

However, attorney John Briggs, who isn't involved in the case, says the DOJ clearly has concerns. "It's not routine for a settlement of a class action like this to be getting scrutiny of any sort from the Department of Justice," says Briggs, managing partner and co-chairman of the antitrust group at Axinn, Veltrop & Harkrider LLP law firm. "I think it signals Google is very much in the sight line of the Department of Justice."

Supporters warn it would be a huge blow to the publishing world if the deal is scuttled.

"I think the publishing industry is under great stress trying to figure out how to operate in a world where it's very easy to make copies of things and to distribute copies of things — which is exactly the problem that the music industry faced," says Paul Courant, dean of libraries at the University of Michigan.

"I think it would be very bad for publishers and authors and the digitization of information going forward if the settlement is not accepted, even if it has to be adjusted in some way, shape or form," says Carolyn Reidy, chief executive of Simon & Schuster, who was a party to the agreement.

The federal court hearing is slated for Oct. 7.